心智斗争纪录片在哪里观看

cycologists alive today his insides come largely from puzzles take for instance the curious puzzle of new york cap drivers and their highly illogical working habits business varies according to the weather on rainy days， everyone wants a cab but on sunny days like today fairs are hard to find logically they should spend a lot of time driving on rainy days because it's very easy to find passengers on rainy days and if they are going to take leisure it should be on sunny days but it turns out this is not what many of them do many do the opposite working long hours on slow sunny days and knocking off early when it's rainy and busy instead of thinking logically the cabbies are driven by an urge to earn a set amount of cash each day come rain or shine once they hit the target they go home they view being below the target as a loss and being above the target as a gain and they care more about preventing the loss than about achieving the gain so when they reach their goal on a rainy day they stop which really doesn't make sense if they were trying to maximize their income they would take their easier on sunny days and they would drive all day on rainy days it was this kind of glitch in thinking that carnamon realized could reveal something profound about the inner workings of the mind he began to devise a series of puzzles and questions which have become classic psychological tests posing problems where you can recognize in yourself that your intuition is going the wrong way the type of puzzle where the answer that intuitively springs to mind and that seems obvious is in fact wrong here is one that i think works on just about everybody i want you to imagine a guy called steve you tell people that steve you know is a make and tidy soul with a passion for detail and very little interesting people he's got a good eye for detail and then you tell people he was drawn at random from a senses of the american population with the probability that he is a farmer or a librarian so do you think it's more likely that steve's gonna end up working as a librarian or a farmer what's he more likely to be maybe a librarian librarian probably a librarian a librarian immediately you know a thought pops to mind that it's a librarian because he resemble the prototype of library probably a librarian in fact that's probably the wrong answer because at least in the united states there are twenty times as many male formers as male librarians librarian librarian that probably more meek and tidy souls you know who are farmers and meek and tidy souls who are librarians？ so we had examples like that like many of them what makes them interesting is that they're not random errors their biases so the difference that in a bias and a random era is that a bias is predictable it's a pattern of human error that affects every single one of us on their own they may seem small oh that seems to be the right drawer but by rummaging around in our everyday mistakes that's very odd carnament started a revolution in our understanding of human thinking a revolution so profound and far reaching that he was awarded and nobel prized so if you want to see the metal that's what it looks like that's it。

every day each one of us makes somewhere between two and ten thousand decisions when you think about our daily lives， it's really a long long sequence of decisions we make decisions probably at the frequency that is close to the frequency we breathe every minute every second you're deciding where to move your legs and where to move your eyes and where to move your limbs and when you're eating a meal or you're making all kinds of decisions and yet the vast majority of these decisions we make without even realizing it was danny conaman's insight that we have two systems in the mind for making decisions two ways of thinking fast and slow you know our mind is really two ways of operating and one is sort of fast thinking an automatic effortless mode and that's the one we're in most of the time this fast automatic mode of thinking he called system one it's powerful， effortless and responsible for most of what we do and system one is you know that's what happens most of the time， you're there the world around you provides all kinds of stimuli and you respond to them everything that you see and that you understand you know this is a tree that's a helicopter back there that's a statue of liberty all of this visual perception all of this come through system one the other mode is slow deliberate， logical and rational this is system two and it's the bet you think of as you the voice in your head the simplest example of the two systems is really two plus two is on one side and seventeen time twenty four is on the other what is two plus two four four four fast system one is always in gear producing instant answers is automatic you do not intend for it to happen it just happens to you it's almost like a reflex and what's that twenty two times seventeen that's a good one but when we have to pay attention to a tricky problem we engage slow but logical system too if you can do that in your head， you'll have to follow some rules and to do it sequentially and that is not a dramatic at all that involves work it involves effort it involves concentration twenty two times seventeen there will be physiological symptoms your heart rate will accelerate your pupils will dilate so many changes will occur while you are performing this computation for three seventy four okay and can i get you to just walk with me for a second who's the current system too may be clever but it's also slow limited and lazy i live in berkeley during summers and i walk a lot and when i walk very fast， i cannot think can i get you to count backwards from one hundred by seven sure one hundred ninety three eighty it's hard when you're walking， it takes up interestingly enough the same kind of executive function as thinking forty four four if you are expected to do something that demands a lot of effort， you will stop even walking eighty six fifty one six everything that you're aware of in your own mind is part of this slow deliberative system too as far as you are concerned it is the star of the show actually， i describe system too as another star i describe it as as a minor character who thinks he is the star because in fact most of it goes on in our mind is automatic and you know it's in the domain that they call system one system one is an old if old bit of a brain and it's remarkable， we couldn't survive without it because system two would explode if mr spock had to make every decision for us， it would be very slow and effortful and our heads would explode and this fast hidden domain is responsible for far more than you would possibly believe having an opinion you have an opinion immediately whether you like it or not whether you like something or not whether you for something or not liking someone and not liking them that quite often is something you have no control over later when you're asked for reasons， you will invent reasons and a lot of what system two does is it provides reason it provides rationalizations which are not necessarily the true reasons for our beliefs in our emotions and our intentions and what we do you have two systems of thinking that steer you through life？ fast intuitive system one that is incredible， incredibly powerful and does most of the driving and slow logical system too that is clever but a little lazy trouble is there's a bit of a battle between them as to which one is driving your decisions that happens as i ask you a question and if the question is difficult， but there is a related question that is a lot that is somewhat simpler you're just going to answer the other question and and not even notice so the system does all kinds of shortcuts to feed us the information in the fast way， we can make actions and the system is accepting some mistakes we make decisions using fast system one when we really should be using slow system two， and this is why we make the mistakes we do systematic mistakes known as cognitive biases。

what happens？ if you're an expert trained in making decisions that are a matter of life and death are you still destined to make these systematic mistakes on the outskirts of washington？ d c horizon has been granted access to spy on the spooks welcome to analytic exercise number four former intelligence analyst donald cretz is running an ultra realistic spy game this exercise will take place in the fictitious city of vastopolis taking part are a mixture of trained intelligence analysts and some novices due to an emerging threat a terrorism task force has been stood up i will be the terrorism task force lead and i have recruited all of you to be our terrorism analysts the challenge facing the analysts is to thwart a terrorist threat against a us city the threat at this point has not been determined it's up to you to figure out the type of terrorism and who's responsible for planning it the analysts face a number of tasks they must first investigate any groups who may pose a threat your task is to write a report the subject in this case is the network of dread the mayor has asked for this fifteen minutes from now just like in the real world the analysts have access to a huge amount of data streaming in from government， agencies， social media， mobile phones and emergency services。 the network of dread turns out to be a well known international terror group they have the track record the capability and the personnel to carry out an attack the scenario that's emerging is a bio terror event meaning it's a biological terrorism attack that's going to take place against the city if there is an emerging threat， they are the likely candidate need to move on to the next task it's now nine april this is another request for information this time on something or someone called the masters of chaos the masters of chaos are a group of cyber hackers a local bunch of misfits with no history of violence and while the analysts continue to sift through the incoming data behind the scenes cretz is watching their every move in this room we're able to monitor what the analysts are doing throughout the entire exercise？ we have set up a knowledge base into which we have been inserting data throughout the course of the day some of them are related to our terrorist threat many of them are not amidst the wealth of data on the known terror group， there's also evidence coming in of a theft at a university biology lab and someone has hacked into the computers of a local freight firm the stakes are incredibly high mistakes can often be life and death we roll ahead now the date is twenty one may if the analysts are able to think rationally they should be able to solve the puzzle， but the danger is they will fall into the trap set by credits and only pay attention to the established terror group the network of dread their judgment may be clouded by a bias called confirmation bias confirmation bias is the most prevalent bias of all and that's where we tend to search for information that supports what we already believe confirmation bias can easily lead people to ignore the evidence in front of their eyes and cretz is able to monitor if the bias kicks in we still see that they're searching for network of dread that's an indication that we may have a confirmation bias operating the network of dread are the big guys they've done it before so you would expect they'd do it again and i think we're starting to see some biases here analysts desperately want to get to the correct answer， but they're affected by the same biases as the rest of us so far most of our analysts seem to believe that the network of dread is responsible for planning this attack and that is completely wrong how are we doing it's time for the analysts to put themselves on the line and decide who the terrorists are and what they're planning？ so what do you think it was a bio terrorist good attack i had a different theory all right， so wish we should be because i may be missing something here too they know that the network of dread is a terrorist group， they know that the masters of chaos is a cyber hacking group either to the meat factory we're in the water supply the question is did any of the analysts manage to dig out the relevant clues and find the true threat in this case， the actual threat is due to a cyber group the masters of chaos who becomes increasingly radicalized throughout the scenario and decides to take out their anger on society essentially who convinced them to switch from cyber crime to bioterrorism or did they succumb to confirmation by us and simply pin the blame on the usual suspects will they make that connection will they process that evidence and assess it accordingly or will their confirmation bias drive them to believe that it's a more traditional type of terrorist group i believe that the masters of chaos have actually the ones behind it it's either a threat or not a threat but the network is red and time's up please go ahead and save those reports at the end of the exercise cretz reveals the true identity of the terrorists we have a priority message from city hall the terrorist attack was thwarted the planned bioterrorist attack by the masters of chaos against vestopolis was thwarted the mary expresses his thanks for a job well done show a hands who got it yeah out of twelve subjects eleven of them got the wrong answer the only person to spot the true threat was in fact a novice all the trained experts fell prey to confirmation bias， it is not typically the case that simply being trained as an analyst gives you the tools you need to overcome cognitive bias you can learn techniques for memory improvement you can learn techniques for better focus， but techniques to eliminate cognitive bias just simply don't work and for intelligence analysts in the real world the implications of making mistakes from these biases are drastic government reports and studies over the past decade or so have sighted experts as believing that cognitive bias may have played a role in a number of very significant intelligence failures and yet it remains an understudy problem。

since carnament first began investigating the glitches in our thinking more than a hundred and fifty cognitive biases have been identified we are riddled with these systematic mistakes and they affect every aspect of our daily lives， the compete has a very big list of bio season we are finding new ones all the time one of the biases that i think is the most important is what's called the present bias focus？ it's the fact that we focus on now and don't think very much about the future and that's the bias that causes things like overeating and smoking and texting and driving and having unprotected sex。 another one is called the halo effect and this is the idea that if you like somebody or an organization you're biased to think that all of its aspects are good not everything is good about it if you dislike it everything is about people， really are quite uncomfortable you know by the idea that hitler love love children he did now that doesn't make him a good person but but we feel uncomfortable to see an attractive trait in a person that we consider you know the epitome evil we're prone to think that what we like is all good and what we dislike is all bad that's a bias another particular favorite of mine is the bias to get attached to things that we ourselves have created we call it the akia effect well， you've got loss of version risk aversion present bias spotlight effect and the spotlight effect is the idea that we think that other people people pay lots of attention to us when in fact， they don't confirmation bias over confidence is a big one， but what's clear is that there's lots of them， there's lots of ways for us to get things wrong you know there's one way to do things right and many ways to do things wrong and we're capable of many of them these biases explain so many things that we get wrong our impulsive spending trusting the wrong people not seeing the other person's point of view succumbing to temptation we are so riddled with these biases it's hard to believe we ever make a rational decision， but it's not just our everyday decisions that are affected。

妖怪玻璃惹你了吗？没有，刘浩孙楠他们两个同伴老叫我名字刘思博，所以我就不高兴了。不叫你刘思博叫你什么呀？ 帅哥 好吃你给我下面啊。你看你吃的这个大肚子，你看人家就会很不那么胖。 承认是有压力，但是真的是要看自己的需要，自己就是来调整， 因为助理在这住，服对象也在这住，基本就算是全年二十四小时都可以，我们在日常的工作当中也是大量的给服对象提供机会去选择， 然后就是不是工作人员自己说这个好，然后这个不好，你应该选这个东西，他们所有的决定都是应该被尊重。对，不要觉得他如何。 哎，我心想有几个人是这样的，你了解大部分的智力障碍者和精神障碍者， 冰红茶会有的，农夫山泉会有，看有铁都会有。

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